Turnout Calculator

This tool compares the effect of investing the same amount of change (at UVM) into two different metrics: yield rate (YR) & registration rate (RR).

Impact Caculator (2016 baseline)

Compare registering eligible voters and turning out already registered ones. Measure impact by a change of points.

Registering Voters

A change of __ points would increase the overall voter pool to ______.
``` RR Delta * YR (2016) = Voter Pool Delta __ pts * 62.7% = ____ ```

Turning Out the Vote

A change of __ points would increase the overall voter pool to ______.
``` RR (2016) * YR Delta = Voter Pool Delta 73.6% * __ pts = ____ ```
This is another way of thinking about where to invest your time when getting out the vote. While registering new voters and helping currently registered students turn out to the polls are by no means mutually exclusive, it's important to time your efforts for the most impact. Early on in the year is a great time to be doing voter registration drives, but when the election is on your doorstep, it should be a full tilt campaign to make sure students have a plan to vote.

Formula Explanation

```Year 1 to Year 2 VR Delta = (RR Delta * YR Delta) + (RR Delta * Year 1 YR) + (YR Delta * Year 1 RR) ```

The equations used here were derived from the above formula. When testing for yield changes, the registration delta was held at zero, and likewise, when testing for the impact of registration changes, the yield delta was held at zero. These zeros canceled out that part of the formula, allowing for the simplified equations found in the calculator.

Example

Here's an example calculating how a change in the registration rate would impact the voting rate:

``` Year 1 to Year 2 VR Delta = (5% * 0) + (5% * 62.7%) + (0 * 73.6%) ```

Going from left to right, the registration rate delta (RR Delta) is zeroed by the yield rate delta (YR Delta); we set YR Delta to zero because we want to focus on testing the impact of registration changes. Next, our RR Rate because relevant because it's multiplied by the yield rate from our year of interest. Finally, the YR Delta again makes the registration rate of our year of interest no matter, zeroing it out.

Source Data

UVM Rates 2012 2016
Registration 66.9% 73.6%
Yield 57% 62.7%
Overall Turnout 38.2% 46.2%

Calculator Limitations

• There is currently no number validation preventing a result which exceeds 100%. In reality, increasing a population beyond this is not possible.